Updated: Jul 10, 2019
UPDATED POST - July 2, 2019
BotTrigger Trade Update: $TSLA CONGRATS TESLA BULLS!! I know this took some patience.
What buying extreme over-reactionary, extreme oversold pullbacks looks like. Cheers to all of us on the trade. Tesla is up about +7% in AH above $240 presently on the back reported second-quarter delivery numbers that beat estimates. Tesla announced it delivered a record 95,200 vehicles total in the quarter, exceeding Wall Street estimates of 88,000. It delivered 77,550 Model 3 cars, above views of 74,500. Just remember this giant move that occurred to the downside as a means of identifying what a BEAR RAID looks like....They happen on AAPL, TESLA, AMZN, CMG, NVDA, SBUX, GOOG, FB, AAPL ad nauseam. Show me even ONE "league-stock" that has had a -40 to -50% pullback and not retested & then ultimately eclipsed it's all time highs after a bear raid. They don't exist in this market. League Stocks like TSLA are rooted for by not just the street but that world at large from Institutions, Hedge Funds, & Retailers world wide. They ensure capitalization in helping management see it through ultimately. You can forget about the day you see a Tesla on the road as if it was some DeLorian https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-posts-record-vehicle-deliveries-2q-2019-202225383.html Deliveries of Tesla's Model 3 vehicles increased 52% from the first quarter to 77,550. Meanwhile, combined Model S and X vehicle deliveries rose 25% to 17,650 in the second quarter.
UPDATED POST - June 3, 2019
BotTrigger Trade Alert: With Tesla hitting an intraday low of $176.99 our limit order has finally been filled: bought/added to our June 15, 2020 $360 / $380 vertical call spread @ $1.00.
MAX GAIN = $20 for a 1900% gain so long as TSLA is @ or greater than $380/share upon June 2020 expiration
BREAK EVEN = $361 per share upon expiration
MAX LOSS = if TSLA is @ $360 or less than upon expiration.
UPDATED POST - May 22, 2019
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $TSLA Limit Order set to add to our June 15th, 2020 $360 / $380 vertical call spread @ $1.00 for another 3% allocation which would bring our total position to 6% of the entire folio. If filled, then the MAX GAIN on this trade would yield a 1900% gain opportunity so long as TSLA revisited it's all time highs and traded back above $380 upon July 15, 2020 expiration which is now 394 days away from today.
Look, it almost never feels good to be doing the buying at extreme bearish levels where sentiment is totally shot & especially when you have analysts coming out w/ absurd price targets like $10 on TSLA. I'm aware of all the talking heads & bearish coverage on Tesla which is further spooking the buyers/sellers whilst emboldening the shorts on this name. This is pretty much how capitulation is catalyzed. Holders on the stock can't take the pain anymore & yell UNCLE, UNCLE! They sell their position at the lows & causes a cascading flush. The strongest reversals historically occur once the sellers have been put to sleep & weak hands finally fold their cards...then and only then can buyers control the direction of the stock....it's when the supply glut of sellers are done selling, it's only then that buyers can swim upstream w/out the selling pressure dumping shares. We're getting very close to that move being fleshed out right around this area. TSLA is now down from peak to trough 50.44% from the it's ATH. The February 2016 correction saw a -51.60% correction before finally bottoming. TSLA has also now tagged the 78.6% Fib Retracement level which was around $193
Let's take a look @ the weekly chart & just distinguish how deeply oversold TSLA is relative the median price range.
The 2016 correction took TSLA down -51.60 from peak to trough which took place over the course of 102 days. Presently the current correction has resulted in a -50.44% correction over the last 101 days, thus far as of today. Take a look @ the PPO indicator here which measures the distance traveled below the 100 weekly moving average on a percentage basis. The 2016 correction bottomed after share price got as low as -39% below it's 100 week MA. As of today, TSLA has exceeded that distance as it's closed now -52.42% below the 100 week MA. Whats more, RSI here on this weekly chart reached a low value today of 27.79 vs the 2016 correction saw an RSI low value of 26.19 which is just about a point deeper. However what's important to remember when comparing the 2016 values is that was the aggregate data for the entire week. It's only Wednesday so we will get the conclusive comparisons by end of week. But the point here I'm trying to make is that we're very likely right NEAR the ultimate low on TSLA. We could still see a capitulatory flush down the $170-$180 area. In any case we're due for a strong bounce very soon AND it's the quality of that bounce that will give us more color on whether the buying momentum is weak or strong. That will give us indication whether to hold or exit the trade. ALT PERSPECTIVE: Chipotle's novorious outbreak went as deep as -67%, which when compared to TSLA is around $125 per share. That's not our target but watching
UPDATED POST - May 17, 2019
BotTrigger Trade Update: $TSLA we are very close to getting filled on our limit order to buy the June 15, 2020 $360 / $380 vertical call spread @ $2.00.
It's currently trading right around $2.06 at the mid point. Again, we don't have to hold this until expiration by any means. We may use this position to simply trade what we believe will be a very strong counter rally. But assuming we did hold this position, if TSLA's share price got back to it's all time highs @ reached $380 per share upon expiration which is about 400 days away, this position would be worth $20 for a 900% gain. This is very similar to when we put on the AAPL trade on the Jan 20121 $210 / $230 call spread @ $2.40....that spread reached as high as $10 in value when AAPL was trading back to around $215. This is also similar to our AMZN Jan $1980 / $2000 call spread that we purchased @ $4.9. Again, we don't have to wait till expiration as we may very well just use this position to trade the appreciated value of the spread when TSLA throws it's next big bull party.
ORIGINAL POST - April 26, 2019
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $TSLA we're placing a GTC (good till cancel) limit order to buy the June 15, 2020 $360 / $380 vertical call spread @ $2.00.
I know many of you know the math / drill very well but I will always reiterate: The MAX GAIN on this trade yields a 900% return so long as TSLA is @ $380 or greater than UPON expiration. The breakeven occurs if share price is @ $362 & MAX LOSS occurs if TSLA is @ $360 or less than UPON expiration.
Right now the value of that spread is trading around $3.00, but I think we can catch this lower on the next gap-down flush. First you get the strong bearish engulfing bar with a deep selloff that torments longs in a slow bleed out where the sell off trickles lower pretty much the whole day. Every bounce on the 5min chart is sold off etc. Today is that day. The TSLA capitulation move is finally happening. We're getting near the peak of this bearish flush as buyers & even patron believers are starting to throw in the towel. Next what we tend to see is a gap-down to further shake the last line of defense which further beleaguers the longs. THE STRONGEST COUNTER RALLIES IN HISTORY OCCUR WHEN THE SELLERS HAVE ALL STARTED TO YELL, "UNCLE! F-THIS I'M OUT." We're nearly almost there. Don't be surprised to see a hard reversal mid to late next week. We can easily see another -$15 day where TSLA is likely to see a bottom at the original breakout zone that started the big rally from $200 to $380. We'll be looking for the final capitulatory bottoming reversal to occur around the $215 to $200 area. RSI on the weekly chart is presently around 34.5. Beyond our existing limit order to buy the fore mentioned spread, we will be taking more intermediate to near term positions once RSI tags the 30-RSI low and or anywhere near $215 to $200/share. This is the trade I've been eagerly waiting for the entire year. Come to daddy
VIDEO OF TESLA TRADES
TSLA TRADE ALERT HISTORY HERE → https://www.bottrigger.com/post/2018/05/02/members-trade-alert-tsla-calls-closed-out-before-earnings-today