UPDATED - JUNE 25, 2018 - MONDAY
Tesla is now at a -12.22% discount from the $373.58 peak on June 18th to the $327.59 intraday low that occurred today. As we showcased back on the June 14th post, when TSLA is in an explosive uptrend, there are more than a handful(s) of pull backs that occur within that uptrend. So far Tesla is down -12.22% within the last 6 days. The study suggests that we're due for a strong near term bounce any moment on TSLA and that a resumption of the uptrend is likely to ensue. Again, refer to these 2 slides to get a sense of what those pullbacks look like during an up-cycle - click on the slides arrow left or right:
However....as you recall in last weeks post we explicated on some reservations on why we needed to still wait as there was evidence that more down ahead was still likely. And so we got an even deeper pullback now to about -12%. Notice in the slides above the deepest pullback during the 2016 rally was a -10.35% pullback and in 2017 the deepest pullback was around a -9% pullback. Here we are in this 2018 rally and we've now gotten a -12.22% pullback. What's more, RSI on the hourly chart is at extreme lows where the strongest reversals tend to pivot: Take a look here on this hourly chart:
We've also now passed through the 9, 21, 50 & now even the 100 EMA (exponential moving average). That's all speaks to discounted opportunity yes...but it also shows that TSLA is behaving off script from what a continuous up-trending rally look like. Which is absolutely fine. It doesn't by any stretch mean that TSLA is done with the uptrend...it just means that Tesla is now more likely to take it's time to cultivate an even stronger breakout pattern. You see those 3 big red PLUNGE bards on the hourly chart? TSLA will have to contend with that selling pressure and to do so requires transactional patterns that come up & come back down ...cycling/chewing through supply & resistance. That takes organic time. I'm not saying this will happen...I'm showcasing what tends to happen. We need to respect the behavior of why & how this happens to begin with.
First off let's step back and acknowledge that Tesla's eagerly anticipated Q3 earnings report where Elon claims Tesla will announce their first quarter of profit isn't until early to mid August. So until then, there isn't much of a catalyst to just assume that the bull run will continue right here, right now. It very well could continue however...and that's fine. We'll be there to catch the upwards momentum one way or the other. But first, I'm looking for a paltry bounce from here ...followed by a retest of the $330 area that occurs on higher RSI. But the bottoming reversal can happen a myriad of different way / cultivations. Bullish divergence is just one angle of consideration in what to look for.
For example, if we get a breakout above $340 on 2 to 3x volume on the hourly chart, that's a very strong variable that the bottom was in on this pullback. That's just yet another example of a "thing" to look for. Again we don't have that yet.
It's very simple here, until conditions ripen...we wait. We're not going to pick off fruit that isn't ready to eat.
UPDATED - JUNE 22, 2018 - FRIDAY
Ok we have *most* of what we've been waiting for on Tesla which is the following...but there is a *but*. First off let's go over the technical requisites that we wanted to first see before considering our reentry on new/other positions:
1) Gap Fill at the $335 area has been achieved as TSLA had an intraday low of $336.36. You recall this week we had reserved caution until at minimum that gap was filled to increase the probability for a resumption of the near term uptrend. That target has been reached. Refer to earlier this week's member alert text where this gap fill image on Tesla was showcased on 6/19/18
2) We have a -10.77% pullback from peak to trough which is historically within range of what we've seen on TSLA pullbacks during strong uptrend cycles. You'll recall we posted this sessions ago which I will repost here
3) And another data point we wanted to see occur is that key moving averages such as the 9, 21, 50, & even 100 EMA (exponential moving average) get tagged. Well those have all been reached.
☒ However, we have 3 giant BEARISH ENGULFING red candle bars which tends to suggest that there is a stronger selling force at play
— Yes it could gap up much higher and reverse all of today’s downside by Monday…but our edge in assuming that is not a viable trade thesis to enter long today. We need to wait for more candle bars to come in to revive the thesis that a resumption of the uptrend will occur on the near & intermediate term trends.
Patience will pay off. BE ZEN & LEARN TO SIT ON YOUR HANDS. I don't care if TSLA goes to $300, $310 or $320 from here ...all the better for us. Either we buy lower or we buy on a clean cut & authoritative breakout after a strong reversal signal occurs. Until then we have no edge to viably assume that the *Bottom is in* ...we don't have enough evidence to arrive at a clean inference just yet.
Stay tuned....we will get there
UPDATED - JUNE 14, 2018 - THURSDAY
Now with Tesla trading around the $355 area as the bullish momentum continues, the value of our January $300 / $320 call spread is now worth around $13.50 from our $7.98 entry. Again, this will be worth $20 which is a 150% gain so long as Tesla is merely @ or above $320 by January 18th, 2019. This was our conservative hedge on Tesla in the event that it kept on running up when we sold our June spread for around a 200% gain last week.
In today's post we're going to discuss our requirements for our reentry for our next swing trade setup. First off, let's acknowledge some key pieces of fundamental news that continue to add tailwind to the upside of everything that has been technically charging on TSLA's chart. Tesla continues to rip higher while we wait for the next "relative pullback" as both the technical & fundamental tailwinds blossom further.
→ Musk buys back $25 million in Tesla shares back from April through May. He was a participating buyer that helped cultivate the bottom. More importantly, this adds further veracity behind Elon's claim that Tesla will be profitable by Q3 & Q4. https://finance.yahoo.com/video/musk-buys-back-25-million-170027588.html
→ Tesla might have achieved battery energy density and cost breakthroughs
“It’s difficult for us to talk about specific cost numbers. It’s a difficult topic, but we are still very confident that we have the best price and performance of anything out there in the world. If there’s anything better, I don’t know about it and we have looked as hard as we possibly can. We try to talk with every single battery startup, every lab, every large manufacturer. We get quotes from them. We test cells from them. If there’s anything better, we are all ears, we want to find it, but we haven’t found it yet.” - Elon Musk
→ Tesla will start rolling out its ‘full self-driving’ package in August, Elon Musk says https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/11/17449076/tesla-autopilot-full-self-driving-elon-musk
Let's discuss our reentry requirements for what we're looking for on our next swing trade on Tesla. First off let me start by saying, we have no edge to be buying near term call options or call spreads on Tesla at this time. We'd be guessing / hoping that our timing / entry on a trade up here at this $355 area would work. We don't want to be buying ANY NEAR TERM CALLS on Tesla *UNTIL WE GET OUR NEXT RELATIVE PULLBACK.* It's that simple. Sure, Tesla can continue to rip higher from here ...and we would gladly miss that particular surge ...which is fine. The risk is that we enter long on near term nitrogen boosters like a July $330/$350 call spread or July $340 calls and then Tesla retests the $330 area after we made our purchase. This is just not the area we want to be entering long on anything NEAR-TERM.
Mind you, this is what we have our January spread for. Our January $300 / $320 call spread is designed to act akin to a SRF (Slow Release Fertilizer) and provide yield to the portfolio over a steady amount of time...that call spread will continue to appreciate in value so long as either TSLA keeps ripping higher or simply stays above $320 upon expiration.
SO WHAT ARE WE LOOKING FOR ON OUR NEXT REENTRY
Now in every bull cycle on TSLA there will be about 2 HANDFULS of pullbacks that range anywhere from -3% to -8% along this uptrend. I've mapped out every prominent bull cycle on TSLA and the 2 main things we will be looking for are the following:
1) → PULL BACKS TO KEY MOVING AVERAGES ON THE HOURLY CHART: TSLA pulls back somewhere within range of the 9EMA & 21 EMA (exponential moving average) ....and even the 50 EMA on the hourly more than 2 handfuls before an interemediate term peak/top is established.
2) → % OF PULLBACK IS ANYWHERE FROM -3% TO -8% / -10% ALONG IT'S BULL CYCLE MORE THAN A HANDFUL OF TIMES.
Backing up, I want you to take a look at what these bull cycles look like and how far they can run for from the trough-low to the peak-top – also take notice that we are now 45% higher from the most recent trough low with TSLA up here around ~$355:
Now let's zoom in on the hourly chart & I want to show you what the small little pullbacks look like along the way up. We will only be entering on a near-term swing trade once we get a pullback within a similar vicinity, contingent upon a few other things that I'm looking for ...but the gist of showcasing these views is this: at bare minimum we will need a pullback within a % decline in share price that converges with a pullback within range of the 9 & 21 EMA ...and even the 50 (exponential moving average). This is very important layer of our analysis but it's not the only data point that we'll be looking for. We'll discuss more on that in a bit.
In early 2017 Tesla ran up 90% in about 2 months. Take notice of how many pullbacks occurred during that runup by both:
→ Tagging the 9 to 21 EMA (exponential moving average) &
→ Take notice of the % decline of each of those pullbacks that ensued.
Then notice of the subsequent rally to new highs after each of these pullbacks that occurred:
Ok now let's look at another monster rally which was the run-up of early 2017 when Tesla ran up 60% higher within 72 days and even later netted 115% higher in 200 days. Focusing in on just that 72 day period let's take a look at the hourly chart. Again we have 10 pullbacks that occurred just like 2016 all of which tagged either the 9 EMA to 21 EMA ...even better is going lower yet to the 50 EMA. Now this is VERY IMPORTANT TO DISTINGUISH: Tesla most assuredly can & very likely will tag that 50 EMA again. And it's precisely this kind of pullback cycle that we want to be taking advantage of...take a look:
The evidence here is clear....we want to wait for a pullback & then more importantly a reversal which I will hone in on using much smaller time frames like the 5min, 10min, 30min chart along with layering the actual options call chart in TOS. Just like in TSLA's share price chart pattern, the option contracts themselves perform similarly when indicators are applied to the contract's graphs. We want to see a bullish crossover on both stochastics & MACD momentum indicators on not only TSLA's share price chart but also the OPTION CONTRACTS themselves that we'll be utilizing for our reentry. We'll define which contracts we're scouting & considering as we get closer.
For now, if TSLA keep running higher from here ...then that's what our January spread is for. It's a hedge to give us exposure to the upside no matter. Be patient here...TESLA will inevitably pullback on the near term. It may not be as sweet as a pullback to the 50 EMA but let's wait to see what things look like once we get back to the 9 EMA at bare minimum from here.
UPDATED - JUNE 12, 2018 - TUESDAY
$TSLA UPDTE: We have a new trade setup on TSLA that's starting to ripen. While our January $300/$320 call-spread is already up over 60% in value ...that will continue to act as our hedge towards upside risk & mature to a gain of 150% by January expiration so long as TSLA is merely above $320/share.
The June call-spread that we sold @ for a ~200% gain was like a quick-release fertilizer. It's like a nitrogen booster for your fruit yield, right? That gave us bigger blooms to capture more sun so our Fruit tree can grow into the following seasons. But if you over fertilize your garden/tree/portfolio, then you risk burning your trees/portfolio. That's why we have weighted part of our portfolio into the January call-spread.
Think of the January call-spread like our slow-release fertilizer. You don't fertilize the entirety of your portfolio with all quick-release (near term & more aggressive call options). We will scout monthly nitrogen boosters to boost up the portfolio along the way when the feeding / setup is right. If the conditions are not right or ready...then we wait. Well...I'm getting more excited by the day on TSLA is we're a whole new opportunity is starting to now setup. In the meantime, our January $300/$320 call spread will act as a slow release fertilizer in producing steady yield & price appreciation.
→ MEMBERS WILL BE EMAILED & TEXTED THE NEXT TRADE SETUP AS IT RIPENS. COMING OUT LATER TODAY.
Now why did we go long on TSLA when we did? We laid out a compendium of evidence on how Tesla was BUILDING CAUSE to launch higher. One angle of data that was presented to the jury was a Member's Alert showcasing this image & excerpting the reasoning why this was just yet another important data set that needed to be considered in our game calculus. We looked at something called the "% distance below the 100 day moving average." This was not the only reason why we want long but it was a compelling data point that was considered. Here is that image from April 4th, and then below it is the updated view:
April 4th daily view:
June 12th daily view:
And as of today we have a clear cut breakout as TSLA is well on it's way to a retest of the highs, now 45% higher since April.
Congrats everyone on TSLA - our January $300 / $320 call spread is now worth around $13 which is a 62% gain from our $8 entry. Remember, this position will increase to a maximum value of $20 so long as TSLA is above $320 by January expiration. If TSLA went sideways or even down from here no less than $320 ...it would make no difference to this position ...it will mature to a ripe value of $20.
Now with regards to our June $300/$320 spread that we closed out (prematurely perhaps, yes) with a gain of ~200% net...we sold that position because it doubled in less than 24hrs in quick order, & was the riskiest position to hold as June 29th expiration encroaches. What's more, we were heavily weighted in the folio with that position so it was prudent to trim risk with such a big gain. We bought that position @ $5.90 & $3.75....then sold it at $13. Today that same spread is now trading around $19 in value ...already nearly @ the maximum value threshold of $20.
If we didn't sell it then, we'd definitely be selling it today as there is very little juice in the tank on that position. So we left about $7 in value on the table by selling when we did. That's ok... now let's focus on the next setup....
Post coming out today to Members.
UPDATED - JUNE 7, 2018 - THURSDAY
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $TSLA sold the June 2019 $300/$320 Call Spread @ $13 | entire allocation sold for a 246% gain on buy alert #2 & a 120% gain on buy alert #1.
As evidenced by the day, we have a NEAR TERM reversal on TSLA here on the hourly & daily timeframe. TSLA opened @ $316 ran to $330 & has given it all back now back around $316. That's fine...Keep in mind that TSLA will still very likely close above $320 by June 29, but lets use this pullback to get into discounted longer term spreads
$TSLA Regarding the June Spread that we've just closed out. On every bull run like this, we traditionally see pullbacks to the 9 EMA (exponential moving average) &/or within range of the 21 EMA. But make no mistake about it, the trend is UP on the intermediate term time frame. Don't get fooled in thinking that this 1 day pullback is the end of the trade. We have fast money ringing the register which is good for us as that will present new discounted entries.
UPDATED - JUNE 6, 2018 - WEDNESDAY
$TSLA WE HAVE LIFT OFF! The Stock is now supersonic! Congrats all longs on this trade. The value of the June $300/$320 call spread is already up around 200% in value around $12 as TSLA shares are now already above $320 per share. W/ TSLA already @ 15% of the entire folio, we are now positioned to reap some serious rewards in both our June & January 2018 positions. I'm going to re-send a few past alerts to drive a point:
$TSLA who remembers this alert we sent back on April 18th (images below). I want you note this behavior shown here on this chart & etch this into your mind. This is all part of a larger cultivation of how stocks SET-UP & **BUILD CAUSE**. TSLA price behavior has been broadcasting a very loud message to everyone. "WANTS HIGHER" Pullbacks from here are what we call a "buy-the-dip-copoun"
Here were the 2 mobile alerts that were sent on April 18th. Etch them into your mind & distinguish what a bullish stand looks like. When you see price action like this...it means STEP OUT OF THE WAY & GET LONG
Back to our TSLA June 29th $300 / $320 Call-Spread: it reached a high value of $12.94 today which means that the thing we paid $5.90 on buy alert 1 & $3.75 on buy alert 2 was purchased for $12.94 by other participants today.
The max value this spread will achieve is $20 so long as TSLA closes @ $320 or higher *UPON* expiration. We may sell it far before then if TSLA gets farther above $320 too quickly and rotate into a longer dated position. For now...enjoy the price appreciation.
UPDATED - JUNE 5, 2018 - TUESDAY
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $TSLA bought the January 2019 $300 / $320 call spread here @ $7.98 with 5% allocation. That's 227 days away. If TSLA's share price simply increases 10% from here upon expiration ...this trade makes a 150% gain. Incredible risk/reward setup.
Very simple math here → If TSLA closes @ $320 or higher upon expiration...that $7.98 will turn to $20. That's a 150% gain if TSLA simply closes anywhere $320+. It doesn't matter if TSLA goes to $400 (unlikely) ...that spread could only ever be worth a max value of $20 IF TSLA is at $320 or higher, keyword here is "UPON" expiration.
This is categorically a rather conservative position that affords us plenty of time to navigate the trade & weather both near & intermediate term pullbacks. We're only asking TSLA's share price to move about 10% higher from the $290 to $320 area from now till January.
UPDATED - JUNE 1ST, 2018 - FRIDAY
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $TSLA bought the June 29th $300 / $320 call spread at $3.75 with another 5% allocation. Although we didn't get our $3.50 fill, we'll take it @ $3.75. We're done on this near term spread. It's time for this to bake and do work at this point. We're now 10% loaded of the entire folio on this near term spread.
**NOTE - We don't have to wait till TSLA gets @ or above $320 to do well on this trade. In fact, it's very likely we will be selling at least half of this spread to rotate into a more conservative & longer dated call-spread strategy. The intent of this spread is to capitalize on near term momentum that is building cause for higher. We have about 28 days for this position to work for us while TSLA is building out that pattern.
UPDATED - MAY 31st, 2018 - THURSDAY
471% RETURN IF TSLA @ OR ABOVE $320 UPON JUNE 29th 2018
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $TSLA Limit Order placed to add to the June 29th $300/$320 Call Spread here @ $3.50 with another 5% allocation
Max Gain = $20 for 381% Gain if TSLA is > or @ $320 by June 29th.
Break Even = $303.50
Max Loss = < $300
**Please review the full post below where we have tabled 3 other trade opportunities that are long-dated call spreads with the potential to produce oversized returns on a retest of the ATH (all time high) zone of $380 on TSLA. Tomorrow is Friday expiration for weekly options and we usually get stocks pinned that have high options activity....they pin these stocks right below what's known as the "Max Pain" area where the most calls or puts or open...the intent is to expire the calls worthless for the market makers that sold them. "Max pain" is defined by the point at which options expire worthless based on the tendency for the price of a underlying stock to gravitate towards its "maximum pain strike price" – the price where the greatest dollar value of those options will expire worthless. "Max Pain" this week for TSLA where the greatest number of calls to puts ratio lies around the $287.50. What this tends to mean more often than not...is that we usually see stocks close within pennies of the max-pain point so that the greatest number of both calls & puts will expire worthless so the market makers can collect as much premium as possible without giving up anything. For example: a) being called away if they sold calls &/or b) being put the stock if they sold puts. So I wouldn't at all be surprised to see TSLA close Friday under this price come tomorrow. Hope for a pullback tomorrow as it will open up an even more discounted opportunity to capture the following spreads even cheaper than what we've tabled.
**Also please distinguish that we are imploring 2 trade strategies on TSLA:
→ NEAR TERM MOMENTUM: the June call option spread is designed to capture near term momentum that is building cause for higher prices in June.
→ LONGER TERM MOMENTUM: Towards the end of today's post we model more long-dated positions that give us exposure to Tesla's profitable quarter that Elon has promised is due by Q3 & Q4.
Peter Thiel had three takeaways from his presentation at the Economic Club in NYC back at the March event:
1. Never bet against Elon Musk
2. Money is bubble that never pops
3. Long Bitcoin in a big way
In whole, we agree with Peter - however, we want to model a position that provides some mitigative insurance that Elon may be a quarter off ... and/or that the market may take it's time pricing in Tesla's inevitable price rise. Let's assume that Tesla isn't profitable actually until Q1 of 2019 and Elon misses his claim/promise that Tesla will be profitable by Q3 & Q4. Elon's tweet claiming Tesla will be profitable & cash flow + in Q3 & Q4
To mitigate the risk of volatility & or a missed quarter, right now we're looking @ the following call spreads tabled below... and we'll explain why.
First off, for referential perspective take notice of when Q3 & Q4 earnings are on the time scale:
Q3 Earnings ~ late October to early November 2018
Q4 Earnings ~ Early February 2019
273% RETURN IF TSLA ABOVE $360 UPON MARCH 15th 2019
March $340 / $360 Call Spread is currently trading around $5.35
Max Gain = $20 a 273% Gain if TSLA is > or @ $360 by March 15th, 2019.
Break Even = $345.35
Max Loss = < $340
Why this one? → Assume that Elon's claim of profitability fell short for Q3 & Q4 even...there is a very high probability that the market will still advance Tesla's share price in advance of the claim to at bare minimum retest the all time highs of Tesla which is $389.61. Even with a retest of the highs that fell short, we could still very easily see Tesla trade to a "lower high" area of around $360. Again, Q4 earnings occurs in early February, and so we'd be buying an extra month of protection utilizing this March $340 / $360 call spread. Take notice that we're not asking for Tesla to be at or above it's all time high price of $389. We're actually pricing in a "Lower Higher" while the marek prices in a bull cycle that retests that $389 high area in advance of Q4, February 2019 earnings. This spread is modeled to account for 2 quarters of missed promises and the market giving Elon the benefit of the doubt to at least raise share price in advance of the possibility that profitability will occur as early as November of 2018
160% RETURN IF TSLA ABOVE $320 UPON JANUARY 18th 2019
January $300 / $320 Call Spread is currently trading around $7.50
Max Gain = $20 a 160% Gain if TSLA is > or @ $360 upon January 18th 2019.
Break Even = ~ $307.50 upon expiration
Max Loss = < $300 upon expiration.
Why this one? → If Q3 of November 2018 earnings shows a miss on Elon's claim of profitability, then the market would have very likely at bare minimum value TSLA back to a middle range somewhere in between 2018 annual high of $380 high & the 2018 annual low of $244.59. That mid point is right around the $320 area. Why does $320 make sense to us? Because Q4 earnings is still another quarter where profitability may be announced and so we can reasonably expect that the market would price TSLA's shares around at least the 2018 annual mid point....setting up further cause for a breakout if positive numbers come in to retest the all time $380 high. It's likely TSLA will be much higher than $320, but we're shooting for the lower tier of expectation. Take a look at the annual mid point here:
400% RETURN IF TSLA @ OR ABOVE $400 UPON JUNE 21st, 2019
June $380 / $340 Call Spread is currently trading around $4.00.
Max Gain = $20 a 400% Gain if TSLA is > or @ $400 upon June 21st, 2019.
Break Even = ~ $384 upon expiration
Max Loss = < $380 upon expiration.
Why this one? → This spread represents the most bullish outcome which is Tesla reporting profitability & cash flow positive earnings effective Q3 & Q4. In which case we would expect to see the ATH $380 area taken out with Tesla well on it's way to $400+ In fact, the measured move breakout target forecasts Tesla with a target of around $480 upon a breakout of $380. We're not playing it for the most maximum squeeze possible as is often the case that the market will take it's time to get Tesla up there. Either way, we love this June 2019 spread as it captures a full year of trading action. It all comes down to this: 1) is there enough evidence to suggest that TSLA will be at $400 a year from now? and 2) are you willing to take that bet and by how much? If you are, then your potential return on this specific trade is a 400% ROI opportunity.
We'll very likely be making a move in one or a combination of the spreads outlined above. We could be making a trade effective tomorrow or early next week.
UPDATED - MAY 30th, 2018 - WEDNESDAY
238% RETURN IF TSLA @ OR ABOVE $320 UPON JUNE 29th 2018
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $TSLA bought the June 29th $300/$320 Call Spread @ $5.90 for a 5% allocation.
Max Gain = $20 for 238% Gain if TSLA is > or @ $320 by June 29th.
Break Even = $305.9
Max Loss = < $300
Entering on this trade tomorrow is absolutely fine. Catching a limit order @ $5.50 if we get a pullback great. If TSLA gaps-up or pulls back we will be adding to this either way. This is a starting position.
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $TSLA closed out our May 18th $310 strike calls here @ $13 for a small gain. Good time to close them out and reduce risk with Q1 earnings being reported right after the bell - these calls are not suitable to hold through earnings.
They were great for technical upside momentum, but that took too long to materialize. We bought them back @ $12.50 and are closing them out pretty much exactly near our purchase point. With a 30%+ short interest on this stock, TSLA could very easily boom to the upside on an epic short covering rally if they meet or beat expectations. But the risk of a miss is always there. Holding this particular position is more akin to gambling at this point. We'll wait till after earnings to asses a better alternative to capture Elon's claim that TSLA will be profitable in Q3 & Q4 of this year.
$TSLA bought back the May 18th $310 Strike calls @ $12.50. We now have more clarity as of today. What looked like the potential to retest lowers yesterday has been negated by today's gap up on already @ 3x the volume that occurred in yesterday's opening session compared to today's opening session. Accelerated volume + coupled with strong price action with a giant bullish engulfing bar has cultivated a very prominent bullish flag. Breakout target shown
We're back in $TSLA bought the May 18th $310 @ $9.57 for a 10% allocation. We have a developing bullish hammer candle bar that has emerged on the daily time frame resulting after a gap down pre market that has fully recovered thus far. Although it's just 8am pst with 5 hours to go before the close of the day...this is likely the end of this near term pullback and we're more likely to now see a renewed bull cycle retest the recent $310 resistance area
UPDATED - APRIL 10, 2018
ON WATCH → $TSLA May $310 Strike call options that expire in 38 days.
We're going to wait till tomorrow to see if we can get a small intraday pullback. Notice here that TSLA tagged the 50 EMA line as seen in blue & then bounced perfectly off that line like it historically does in runups. This is a strong new bull cycle that is emerging that will very likely see $330-$350 plus in the next 2 months. However a retest of the 21 EMA line would be a nice discount
UPDATED - APRIL 6, 2018
$TSLA Sold remaining allocation of our April 27th $300 Strike Calls @ $17.50 for a 112% gain on alert #2. TSLA gapped down today and fully recovered to a new intraday high and then sold all that off with an inverted hammer candle bar here on the hourly chart. We are now getting follow thru to the downside thereafter. This is a near term pullback along the larger uptrend that is building. We will wait for a reversal to occur off the 21 or 40 EMA lines
UPDATED - APRIL 5, 2018 -
$TSLA sold half of our calls here @ $18.19 for a 118% gain in less than 24hrs due to "too much too fast"
ORIGINAL POST - APRIL 4, 2018 - WEDNESDAY
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $TSLA bought the April 27th $300 Strike Call options here @ $8.25 with a 5% allocation.
This is a swing trade position. These calls options expire in 23 days so do notice that this is an aggressive trade. Also notice that those same calls are up about 122% up from the prior day in value. TSLA has clearly reversed the downside move printing this huge BULLISH ENGULFING CANDLE bar off the lows from $245 which is reminiscent of the late February 2016 reversal.
$TSLA there is a lot of confidence in this reversal as it's up nearly $20 on the day from the $245 trough low is a big big deal.
$TSLA main reasons why we want long today. 1) in regards to % distance below the 100-day EMA (exponential moving average), the $245 trough low represents the 2nd deepest low in TESLA's entire history that it has been under the 100 EMA on a percentage basis. Back in Feb of 2016 TSLA went as low as -50% below the 100 EMA...the ensuing rally immediately thereafter resulted in a 85% gain in share price. Here we are w/ a -30% low below the EMA + monster reversal = BUY
$TSLA furthermore, we have other reversal indicators such as a bullish crossover off peak oversold levels that is curling into a bullish crossover on the Stochastics Momentum oscillator. We also have this "about to occur" on the MACD oscillator. But the more obvious reversal signal is this "ISLAND REVERSAL" pattern off the lows where price gaps down...consolidates...then gaps up & departs from the consolidation. Deserted consolidation = the name. See chart
Now notice the weekly view below: