UPDATED - September 16, 2019
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $NVDA sold our January $180 / $200 call spread @ $8.45 for a 205% gain since our entry @ $2.77.
The whole setup on NVDA is still very bullish, but on the near term we have a bearish crossover occurring on the stocahstics momentum oscillator on the daily chart. There is also an open gap on around the $170 area and with earnings not until mid to late November, It's reasonable to expect that we're likely to fill that gap before the next big catalyst which is usually earnings. I'm optimistic that we'll very likely get another opportunity to repurchase this spread at a lower price. And if NVDA continues to push higher from here we still have our January $150 / $155 call spread which is very deep in the money already and so that largely is our hedge against upside risk. We're still holding that position. Either way, whether NVDA pulls back to that gap or even if it continues to push higher from here...we will repurchase a similar call spread UPON THE NEXT RELATIVE PULLBACK.
UPDATED - September 6, 2019
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $NVDA limit order filled (per our alert on July 23rd): sold 50% of our September $170 / $180 vertical call spread @ $7.00 for a 180% gain from our entry @ $2.50 & 84% gain from our first entry @ $3.80. Net return on this trade was a 122%.
We are also creating another GTC limit order to sell the remaining tranche of this spread @ $9.00. Again, with this spread expiring in exactly 2 weeks on September 20, we don't have enough of a buffer of being deeply in the money. Although this spread would indeed be worth a maximum value of $10.00 so long as NVDA is trading @ $180 or higher upon expiration, I'm not comfortable assuming it's a done deal with the stock here @ $179 & 2-weeks on the clock. So we want to be quick on the remaining tranche we are presently still holding. The market is giving us about $7.00 in value for that spread right now. A small pump $3 to $5 next week and we'll easily see the value of this spread briefly reach around $9. The point is to be quick on the draw next week. We've set the following limit order to sell the remainder but may adjust that pending market action.
UPDATED - July 23, 2019
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $NVDA limit order set to sell 50% of our Sept $170 / $180 call spread @ $7.00.
Across all 3 call-spread positions from the September expiration to 2 other spreads expiring in January, NVDA is now our largest allocated position & our 3rd largest gainer right after AMZN 1st & AAPL 2nd.
So we want to trim positions that are nearest to expiration. NVDA's share price has rallied non stop off the lows for a 32% run over the last 35 trading days. Upside momentum is still very much here so we're setting the limit order to reduce by half specifically on this September spread. The value of this spread is currently trading around $5 & change so we're up about +50% on a cost-basis entry of $3.40. Our January $150 / $155 is up around 75% now trading around $3.50 from our $2.00 entry; & our Jan $180 / $200 is presently up around 160% now trading around $7.25 from our $2.77 entry. We have plenty of time for those January spreads to ripen so nothing to do on those but patiently wait & let them work.
UPDATED - June 6, 2019
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $NVDA bought the January 2020 $150 / $155 vertical call spread @ $2.00.
MAX GAIN = $5 for a 150% gain so long as share price trades @ or above $155 by January 2020 expiration
BREAK EVEN = Share price @ $152 upon expiration
MAX LOSS = if share price is @ or less than $150 upon expiration
We're increasing our conservatism on NVDA as a hedge to protect our other call spread positions on NVDA. We have an overwhelming amount of evidence to suggest that NVDA will trade far north of $200 per share by Jan of next year either way. But in the event that their is protracted consolidation period we've elected to buy the January 2020 $150 / $155 vertical call spread @ $2.00. The max gain on this position is $5.00 which stands to yield a 150% gain so long as NVDA merely gets above $155 per share UPON January 17, 2020 expiration which is 227 days away. If we're above $180 by September, we're golden; if we're above $200 by January we're doubly golden as the Jan $180 / $200 would make a 983% gain and the Jan $150 / $155 spread would yield another 150% gain on top. NVDA is now our largest position in the portfolio at around 10% allocation. We have a triple bottom setup that really is more of a cultivation of HIGHER LOWS. NVDA hit the .88% Fibonacci retracement level off the back of a -31% correction. Taking long entries here is a gift that will reward the portfolio in time. Like I said yesterday, buying the bottoms never feels glamorous, but I assure you this market rewards the patient far more than the eagerly greedy. The Stock Market is a brilliant tool that transfers wealth from the impatient to the patient. That's why it's especially critical that we model our positions to afford us with TIME ON OUR SIDE. In this specific trade alert, you have the opportunity to make a 150% gain merely if NVDA's share price can get back above $155 upon exp
UPDATED - May 24, 2019
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $NVDA we're setting a GTC (good till cancelled) limit order to buy the January 17th 2020 $180 / $200 vertical call spread @ $3.00. That spread is currently trading around $3 & quarter.
All we need is a capitulatory day next week or gap-down of some kind to around the low $140's to get filled on this spread. This trade stands to make a 567% gain opportunity so long as share price is @ $200 or greater upon expiration. If you're betting against NVDA then you're betting against deep learning, AI, autonomous EVs & crypto's $250+ billion market cap going no where. Keep perspective here that NVDA just rallied 55% in about 3 months & has now pulled back -25% in the last month & half. This pullback cycle is not abnormal in the slightest...if anything it's exactly that, a "cycle." Where you see NVDA trading today is not where it will be trading months & quarters out. Sector rotations are part of the norm. We see semis hot & then we see them cold. We see healthcare cold turn hot season to season. Do we want to be doing our buying on NVDA when the semis are all the rave... or when it's they're beaten up? Most traders/investors want to do today what they should have done yesterday. The opportunity to pick up dramatically depreciated call spreads is right around this area. If NVDA can pullback to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level which is around the $139 area then we will most certainly get filled. If we get down to the 88% Fib level which is around $133/share then we wld very likely be adding to this position around $2.20-$2.50. One step/layer @ a time.
ORIGINAL POST - May 20, 2019
BotTrigger Trade Alert: $NVDA our limit order has been filled: added to the NVDA September 20, 2019 $170 / $180 vertical call spread @ $2.50 for another 3% allocation.
MAX GAIN on this specific position is a 300% gain opportunity so long as NVDA gets back to @ $180 or higher upon expiration which is now 123 days away.
Breakeven is $172.50 & max loss occurs if NVDA is @ or below $170 per share UPON expiration.
NVDA has now hit a key FRZ (Fib Retracement Zone) level which is the 61.8% fib. In other words, from the trough $125 low of the December correction to the most recent peak high around the $195 level, NVDA has now retraced / given back 61.8% of the rally. The most common area where reversals occur are around what we call the FRZ level which is Fib retracements levels between 50%, 61.8% & 78.6% fib. We are. now @ the mid point of the RELOAD ZONE which is hitting the Fib 61.8% level. While we stalk our Bitcoin long opportunity, NVDA is perhaps the strongest bitcoin / crypto proxy trade as the graphics cards season is about to go full retard to the upside as miners rush back into beefing up mining capacity. China trade war shenanigans aside, expect the NVDA & AMD to see a huge rally alongside crypto once their forward guidance is adjusted to account for the demand surge as their graphics cards are solely responsible for the computing powered required to proliferate network transactions.