June 30 - UPDATED
BotTrigger Crypto Trade Update: $ETH nothing has changed from the original analysis as of yet. $ETH is indeed en route to test the lows. That's what this whole move is predicated upon. Let me distinguish something very clear here. V-recovery formations where positions tank & then immediately V shoot off the lows and recover are very very rare patterns. They statistically are low probability occurrences. Everyone who made long bets on $ETH that this was going to be it's future after this whole down trend was sorely mistaken. Most crypto-knights in this space have no idea what a correction or crash really looks like. They're blinded from it in part largely because they are part of a cultural human-hood enfamed & emboldened around HODLing, Lambos, & Mooning. We love the crypto anthem & the energy around it...but we still need to extrapolate the objective technical evidence as it present itself and play our hand according to high probability setups that transpire in this space, no less. We will get long in a big way when this resolves itself. Right now there are a plethora of long setups that are developing on PotCoin POT, Golem GNT, Siacoin SC, BURST, and some strong others that are ever getting closer to major ripe zones for a strong counter rally. Too many setups are at the precipice of a major move higher, BUT the 2 Kings of the court, ETH & BTC need to make a stand.
It needs to purge out fear, nervousness, an uncertainty. What ETH is doing right here is janglin around a bit, then trickling lower in stages. We don't want to see it jangle around. What we want to see is for ETH to get on with it and seriously puke this move out and get down towards the $230 area...then BULL SHOOT a massive bullish engulfing candle bar on the hourly that takes it from $230 to $250 in an hour. That right there is a WAY BETTER outcome. You want to see that. What it's currently doing here around the $270 area is a song & dance play. It's buying time, consolidating than stair-stepping lower. Instead, you want to see AUTHORITY come into the name.
The BotTrigger trend signal is still showing the down trend is in play. When it flips green on this hourly time frame it has a nearly perfect track record. We can expect the $250 to area to act as the next zone where ETH would reasonably attempt to stage a strong counter rally. But as I mentioned, a more attractive setup is to see it plunge lower and then reverse that whole plunge and close $20+ points on the hourly time frame. Right now the momentum oscillators are still showing that this downtrend has more room to the downside. So we will have to see a pilot of indicators confer with one another before taking any of these bull bars seriously. We need an alignment of bullish crossovers on MACD, Stohastics & most importantly PRICE ACTION & VOLUME to come in on this next move. That will be a very strong buy signal. For now we're still in wait mode.
June 29 - UPDATED
BotTrigger Cyrpto Trade Alert: $ETH Sold entire 100% allocation @ $303.98 for a 31% gain on buy alert 1 & 13% gain from buy alert 2. We can always get back in if it proves itself and puts in a higher low from here. We will be looking to go short via put options on the retest back up that fails. We need further confirmation before taking the short trade. Poor behavior up here for now. ETH not ready for prime time.
June 28 - UPDATED 11:11 pm
BotTrigger Crypto Trade Update: $ETH we may get a bull fake out sooner than expected. There are more than a few reasons why the $320 to $330 area will be a confronting sell zone: For one, it's the resistance top of the larger descending trend line in which ETH has been under in this larger downward channel. What's more, this is really just the first solid rebound attempt up to that area. After a 50% correction, rarely is the first bounce the bounce that takes out the main resistance zone. What's healthy & more constructive is that we get a retest of the lows. That retest of the lows is what helps flesh out further confidence on the next rally attempt to take out the highs. Now take notice of what happens past the $330 range. Notice the ETH transacted is significantly less than around the $320 to $330 area. If & when ETH breaks above this area, it will be much easier to ascend higher. Why? because there are less trapped longs who will be opportunity sellers. The thinner the sellers are, the easier it will climb. Until then, this volume range bar will act as formidable resistance. This volume at price bar is also perfectly aligning with the larger descending trend line. The more convergence we see, the more accurate the anticipated outcome. Also, stochastics on the 1hr, 2hr, 3hr, are about turn into bearish crossovers. So those are all concerning issues and why we'll very likely be selling at least half around here.
June 28 9:33 pm
BotTrigger Crypto Trade Update: $ETH the bull flag here on this near term time frame has not matured and breaking out as expected. Gravity should pull this up like a magnet to around $325. From there we'll be watching for signals that this whole entire move is peaking out. Remember, $330 to $333 is the line in the sand. We want to see $ETH trade above that range for at least 6 hours. If we can get that, then we'll ADD to this current position. If we see weakness then we'll be selling 50% of our current position up here. Right here and now we're actually getting slightly higher prices but on lower RSI (relative strength index). RSI is a key momentum oscillator and when you get higher prices on declining RSI then that's classic bearish divergence. Inversely this is how bottoms are formed...on bottms we we see lower lows but on higher RSI signaling that the bottom is right around the corner. This RSI weakness is still very slight at the moment. Need to see more bars.
June 28 - 7:45 pm
BotTrigger Crypto Trade Alert: $ETH we have now participated in the bulk of this rally, up almost +33% from Buy Alert 1 & about +15% from Buy Alert 2%. We're getting closer to our sell pocket. We're getting a confluence of bearish technicals start to show up in this area. The 2hr stochastic crossover is about to turn into a bearish crossover at the very peak top of it's range. This tends to suggest that the runway for higher nearing the tail end of this move. The only reason why we're yet not selling up here is because the current pattern is showing a bull flag which suggest that there may be one last gasp to the upside. We'll be listing our Bitmex put options for a variety of member appetites. We'll be playing it on the conservative side to start but will increase our exposure once we get full confirmation. We are observing the quality and conviction up here in this range. If we get poor behavior and strong bearish engulfing bars plunging in from a rejection of the $320 - $330 range, that will do it for us. Inversely, if we see very strong behavior here and $330 is taken out with authority, we will only be adding to our long position. Full update on PotCoin coming shortly. It's looking like the eta for take off should be around the end of the week. Updated technicals en route.
June 28 5:00pm
Since Ethereum reached our $200 price target this relief rally makes a ton of sense. But you want to be uber vigilant right here not getting caught up in emotional excitement on this move. ETH is still squarely in bear territory at this point. As mentioned in the prior posts, we could easily see $320 to $330...what you'll want to strongly consider is reducing as much as you're comfortable with around this area, if not here around the $290 level. ETH is very likely to retest the $204 low again. If ETH can print a higher low or cultivate some kind of formidable bottoming pattern then THAT will be a much higher probability setup for us to add into this rally. We are just in this for the first bounce. A bounce that will very likely get sold off. Notice we're only 50% allocated right into ETH. We need a lot more bullish confluence to occur before we can be at full allocation of our ETH pie. We are crypto bulls, just not right here, right now. Be patient as this will all setup huge opportunities. Crypto is likely just in a constructive correction. Not a crash. Just be aware that this move/rally will likely be sold.
June 27 UPDATED
BotTrigge Crypto Trade Alert: $ETH added our 2nd buy for a 25% allocation @ $268.29 area. Our next area to add will be around the $333+ area which is very unlikely however. We'll be more inclined to sell around the $290 to $300 level. It all just depends on the quality of this rally.
BotTrigger Crypto Trade Alert: $ETH now buying back @ $230.71 due to this pronounced double bottom that's developed. We're also getting this latest retest happening on higher RSI on the hourly time frame. Deeper or equal lows that occur on higher RSI is one of our biggest indications that this downtrend is losing energy. Especially after reaching our downside target of $200, this retest of those lows suggest that a counter trend rally is likey en route. We believe this will be just the first rally of many that will be sold off. The first bounce should get somewhere back towards $290 to the $300 range. That's a conservative target, the aggressive target would be a ETH making it's way all the way back up to $320 to $330 which is less likely but possible. We'll be adding to this long position only after we get further confirmation with a breakout above the neckline if energy can take this above $255 to $265 area.
After we sell this position we will likely seek to go short ETH somewhere on a rejection of the highs. Please note, that when we sell our ETH long that does not mean we are going short. We need to see other developments before taking that position.