TSLA TRADE UPDATE: Bull Flag still in Play Suggests Continuation of More Upside Ahead


UPDATED - April 20, 2018


BotTrigger Trade Update: $TSLA is still setting up this bull flag formation. With the giant bullish engulfing candle bar right underneath this pattern, the bull flag is statistically more likely to mature into a breakout than into a failed bull flag that breaks down. When you see this setup, you assume long until proven otherwise. We'd get concerned if price action closed below the $290 to $288 area. Until then, the near term trend is assumed to be still in play and the developing pattern that has so far ensued is regarded as NET BULLISH.

We are holding our May $310 calls positions until proven otherwise. Expiration isn't until the 3rd Friday of May which is 28 days away. Those call options are now trading near $9.80. If someone wanted to better hedge this position one could rotate the May $310 Strike Calls into the September 21st $310 Strike Calls now trading @ $29.10. Those contracts expire in 154 days. So you're buying months of extra time. We'll wait to do such a rotation until after a breakout occurs and we're higher from here and will assume the downside risk of holding the May $310 calls at this time. Why? Because that giant bullish bar underneath this pattern is not your run of the mill bull-bar. In one day TSLA hit a low of $252 and then a closed that same day out @ $286 with a 14% gain on the day. That's the largest single day gainer on both a point & % percentage basis that has occurred on TSLA historically ever. Don't be fooled by the fodder of "job safety probes." All that investors care about here Elon's claim that TSLA will be profitable for the first time ever by Q3 of this year.

All eyes are on TSLA earnings for Q3 & Q4 where Elon claims that for the first time "Tesla will be profitable & cash flow+ in Q3 & Q4."

https://techcrunch.com/2018/04/13/elon-musk-says-tesla-will-be-profitable-in-q3-and-q4/



BotTrigger Trade Alert:

$TSLA bought back the May 18th $310 Strike calls @ $12.50 with a 10% allocation. We now have more clarity as of today. What looked like the potential to retest for lower yesterday has been negated by today's gap up on already nearly 3x the volume that occurred in yesterday's opening session compared to today's opening session. Accelerated volume + coupled with strong price action with a giant bullish engulfing bar has cultivated a very prominent bullish flag. The measured-move, breakout target from this setup has the energy to spring TSLA back to the around the $330 area.

Within the first hour of trading today, a large purchaser placed roughly a $700,000 long bet on the TSLA April 27th $300 Strike call options. Usually these kinds of purchasers are not retail investors like us. More often than not they are the very hands that buy the call options in anticipation of accumulating the actual common stock in support of an easy-to-move-forward-bull-rally. They buy the call options like adding steroids to their protein or MSG to their Chinese.

[UPDATED] MEMBER ALERT POST - APRIL 6, 2018

RESULTS:

Trade Alert 1 → 118% Gain

Trade Alert 2 → 112% Gain

$TSLA Sold remaining allocation of our April 27th $300 Strike Calls @ $17.50 for a 112% gain on alert #2. TSLA gapped down today and fully recovered to a new intraday high and then sold all that off with an inverted hammer candle bar here on the hourly chart. We are now getting follow thru to the downside thereafter. This is a near term pullback along the larger uptrend that is building. We will wait for a reversal to occur off the 21 or 40 EMA lines before initiating a new long position. For now, we sit on our hands and wait.


[UPDATED] MEMBER ALERT POST - APRIL 5, 2018

TSLA we will look to close them out either on the first sneeze of a reversal or hold until the $320 to $330. Because these expire in 22 days we will have to be quick with selling them at the onset of any near term weakness. Don't get too comfortable holding these.


$TSLA sold half of our calls here @ $18.19 for a 118% gain in less than 24hrs due to "too much too fast" ​

Here is the chart for those $TSLA April 27th $300 Strike Call Options ...I want to make clear that we have zero sell signal (just yet) on both the options chart & the stock chart of TSLA. However, we have elected to sell half b/c the gains came very quick & we're at extreme oversold readings on the hourly chart. That doesn't necessarily mean that a pullback will happen but tends to suggest that a near term pullback at very least is right around the corner.


ORIGINAL MEMBER ALERT POST - APRIL 4, 2018

$TSLA bought the April 27th $300 Strike Call options here @ $8.25 with a 5% allocation. This is a swing trade position. These calls options expire in 23 days so do notice that this is an aggressive trade. Also notice that those same calls are up about 122% up from the prior day in value. TSLA has clearly reversed the downside move printing this huge BULLISH ENGULFING CANDLE bar off the lows from $245 which is reminiscent of the late February 2016 reversal.

There is a lot of confidence in this reversal as it's up nearly $20 on the day from the $245 trough low is a big big deal


$TSLA main reasons why we want logn today. 1) in regards to % distance below the 100day exponential moving average, the $245 trough low represents the 2nd deepest low in TESLA's entire history that it has been under the 100 EMA on a percentage basis. Back in Feb of 2016 TSLA went as low as -50% below the 100 EMA...the ensuing rally immediately thereafter resulted in a 85% gain in share price. Here we are w/ a -30% low below the EMA + monster reversal = BUY


$TSLA furthermore, we have other reversal indicators such as a bullish crossover off peak oversold levels that is curling into a bullish crossover on the Stochastics Momentum oscillator. We also have this "about to occur" on the MACD oscillator. But the more obvious reversal signal is this "ISLAND REVERSAL" pattern off the lows where price gaps down...consolidates...then gaps up & departs from the consolidation. Deserted consolidation = the name. See chart:




Some of the greatest pearls shared by Jesse Livermore:

“Money is made by sitting, not trading.”

“The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday, as though they were working for regular wages.”

“Buy right, sit tight.”

“Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.”

“There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. Not many can always have adequate reasons for buying and selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.”

“It takes time to make money.”

“Don’t give me timing, give me time.”