Is this a Buy-the-Dip Bull Market or Bear Market.

BotTrigger Trade Alert:

→ $SPY $TLT & $XHB: Conditional Order to add/buy to the following if within the last 30 minutes of today's trading the following are below the below prices:

→ SPY June 2018 $290 Puts | 5% if SPY is below $259

→ $TLT January 2019 $125 Puts | 5% if TLT is below $118

→ $XHB September 2018 $45 Puts | 5% if XHB is below $41

Are we witnessing a bull market correction or is this the beginning of a bear market? A bull market correction is typically technical in nature whereas a bear market occurs because of fundamental reasons. This appears to be evolving into a fundamental concern over debt in addition to the technical overvaluation. Last night, Senator Rand Paul gave a token attempt at reminding republicans of their fiscal responsibility but his words failed to produce any change. After passing a 2-year increase to the debt ceiling, Moody’s warned: ‘The stable credit profile of the United States (AAA stable) is likely to face downward pressure in the long-term, due to meaningful fiscal deterioration amid increasing levels of national debt and a widening federal budget deficit...Moody's has already indicated that rising entitlement costs and rising interest rates will cause the U.S.'s fiscal position to further erode over the next decade, absent measures to reduce those costs or to raise additional revenues. The recently-agreed tax reform will exacerbate and bring forward those pressures. Moody's current baseline forecast is that the sovereign balance sheet will continue to weaken over the coming decade. Absent corrective fiscal measures, the U.S.'s AAA rating will rely increasingly on its unparalleled economic base and the central role it plays in the global financial system.’

It’s popular for money managers right now to tell clients that the lesson of 1987 was to stay invested in the market and wait for the eventual recovery. I would caution this is not 1987. The market was not overvalued in 1987. There were no bubbles in 1987. Today we’re dealing with bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate. This is a whole new ballgame. And for whatever it’s Fed Chairman Jay Powell is part of the Bush inner circle. Powell was appointed by George H. Bush to serve as undersecretary to the Treasury and then joined H. Bush at Carlyle Group where the firm invested heavily in the rebuild of Iraq following 9/11. Not sure President Trump knew he was bringing in a Bush insider when he appointed Powell as Fed Chairman. The Bush’s don’t like Trump. After two weeks, it seems Powell is content to shelf the plunge protection team. So yes, there’s a chance this is the beginning of a bear market. Time will tell.

We like the idea of having portfolio exposure to the bursting bubbles in stocks (SPY puts), bonds (TLT puts) and real estate (XHB puts). At today’s close we are prepared to add 5% allocations to each if SPY is below $259, TLT is below $118 and XHB is below $41.

Some of the greatest pearls shared by Jesse Livermore:

“Money is made by sitting, not trading.”

“The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday, as though they were working for regular wages.”

“Buy right, sit tight.”

“Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.”

“There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. Not many can always have adequate reasons for buying and selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.”

“It takes time to make money.”

“Don’t give me timing, give me time.”

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These results are based on performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Each trade is executed in BotTrigger's S-Corp trading account in the BotTrigger portfolio managed exclusively by Mike Saad, founder & CEO of BotTrigger of Lovical Inc & Inc (umbrella corp). The performance results shown in BotTrigger's portfolio may vary at certain times of the day due to our API feeds that pull the current price of open or closed positions from Yahoo Finance.  Although BotTrigger has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 benchmark by more than 50% per annum since inception, August of 2016, no representation is being made & or promised that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown. BotTrigger so far this 2018, is on pace to achieve it's largest annual YTD return now in it's 3rd year since inception. This performance assumption is not promised but is being communicated that so far we have achieved the highest rate of return on a YTD & YOY (year over year basis). If a majority of our trade setups fail to materialize based on our analysis or trade thesis, it is absolutely possible to close below our running 50% average if not negative. BotTrigger may & often times does  implore hedging strategies and/or stop-loss precautions in the event that the BotTrigger portfolio sustains heavy losses that might cause the cumulative net value of BotTrigger's portfolio value to near below our 50% threshhold of YTD gains. Our goal at minimum is to be up YTD by up to at least 50% or greater. In the event the net weighting of our trade allocations drops the entire portfolio value below this threshold, then triggered sell signals are generated to reduce to a sizeable position of cash.

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