Our Bitcoin Strategy: HODL, FOLD or EOS



This will be us soon, emerging from winter with the skins of bears on our backs

★ Opportunity Hunter

★ Bitcoin Price Levels Where the Bleeding is Likely to Stop

★ Speculative Demand vs Consumptive Demand

★ Increasing Exposure to BTC, EOS, & ICON

OPPORTUNITY HUNTER

99% of people will only read about Bitcoin/Crypto millionaires and ultimately fail to cease the opportunity of buying crypto during the most discounted opportunities. People aren't programmed to want anything that looks dejected. They say buy blood in the streets...yet this is one of the hardest things for most to actually do. In hindsight, it's always revered with admiration to those who had the sack [moxie] to buy depressed relative lows:

I wish I had kept my 1,700 BTC @ $0.06 instead of

selling them at $0.30, now that they're $8.00! #bitcoin


Everyone wanted Bitcoin @ $19,000 but now the majority of those eager buyers don't want it down here near $6,000. This is very normal psychology. People want to buy the green & not the red. We now have Bitcoin near the $6,000 level & everyone wants to be HODLED tight. I understand. To be fair...I only became interested in Bitcoin earnestly on the basis of price discovery once I discovered it was above $1000. I ignored it when it hit the bottom lows of $152 back on January 12, 2015.

It wasn't until February of 2017 that I made my first serious purchase of Bitcoin @ $1200. I become drawn in by asking the question why & how did this asset class trade from pennies on the dollar to over $1000. The more I discovered and the more I learned, the more convicted I became what was ultimately happening in this space. By April of 2017 BotTrigger officially started covering Cryptocurrencies and issued our first Buy Alert on Bitcoin @ $1300 back on April 26, 2027. We initially came into Bitcoin for the momentum side of the trade opportunity with the obvious goal of hunting yield. So it wasn't until after price had appreciated significantly that we became earnestly passionate about the underlying technology, innovation & disruption that Bitcoin & blockchain technology was paving the way for. None of that has changed. In fact, that potential is infinitely more evolved and happening right before our eyes.

Let's go over some key perspective to start off. All cryptocurrencies get cut off anywhere from -40 to -70% at least 4 to 6 times per year. ALL OF THEM. The only one that from a relative performance standpoint that has performed the strongest has traditionally been Bitcoin. However, this particular correction, Bitcoin has underperformed relative to Ethereum, so far at least....as ETH is down from peak to trough by -57% vs Bitcoin which is down -68%.

Let's quickly compare the relative pullbacks of Bitcoin, Ethereum, & NEO


During the crypto bull market runup that transpired in all of 2017, all of the most reputably regarded projects & even especially the shit_alt_coins lost more than half their value several times over along their uptrend. $NEO for example, we saw more than handful of pullbacks that exceeded -70% corrections. We've successfully traded around a few of them and increased our position size most notably in the June/July correction of 2017.


Ehtereum did the much of the same: went from $404 all the way back down to $131. Ethereum then made a full recovery... and then yet again pulled back down to $200. The recovery after that took ETH all the way to to a high point of $1400. Our old crypto members remember that we traded out of Ethereum during much of that pullback and increased our position size more than a few times along that uptrend. We reentered long on ETH @ $230 and then anothe buy alert @ $318.


BITCOIN PRICE LEVELS WHERE THE BLEEDING IS LIKELY TO STOP

Let's go over where Bitcoin stands relative to the market correction. First off, this is the largest correction that we've seen since the 2013 top. We are now down about -70% from the peak top of $19k. Notice in 2013 Bitcoin entered a massive bear market period that lasted for 409 days where it finally found it's bottom -86% lower from the highs. If history were to repeat ourselves, a -86% retracement from the highs would bring Bitcoin down to the $2600 area. We don't think we'll get that low but it's contextual possibility for reference.


Bitcoin & blockchain are in an entirely different stage of their maturity than back in the 2011-2016 era. That era was largely regarded as the Innovators stage or by many also regarded as the lunatic stage of speculation. Fast forward to 2017 & 2018 we are now entering the adoption era.


SPECULATIVE DEMAND VS CONSUMPTIVE DEMAND

The evidence of this is increasingly growing. The environment we are in today is entirely different than 2013. If you're going to compare the environment today to the environment of 2013 then you need to weigh in the concept of speculative demand vs consumptive demand.

It is true that more than 90% of all Bitcoin related transactions are not from bitcoin being used as a payment method but rather categorically from crypto exchange related trading volume. In other words, Bitcoin's primary use case right now is largely based on speculative demand.

However Bitpay’s payment volume has grown 328% in 2017 compared to 2016; we also have Japan with more than 300,000 merchants that now accept Bitcoin as a payment method and is now slated to increase Japan's GDP by .3% Obviously this is all just a drop in the bucket still....and it's very likely that Bitcoin itself will not make the efficiency requirement to be used as a standard payment method. There are simply much faster cryptocurrencies out there that trump Bitcoin's throughput. Bitcoin was always largely regarded as a store of value

And that brings us to the concept of consumptive demand: Ultimately the cryptocurrency / token that will ultimately thrive is the one that garners the most adoption & use case. We believe that EOS is uniquely positioned to be the king of consumptive demand in the crypto space. We will go over a separate post dedicated to EOS later. In short...think of EOS from the context of ....what Windows OS did for the computer, EOS aims to do for the blockchain. As a blockchain protocol itself, EOS core design is intended to create the platform capability that allows blockchain consumption to occur without the user ever really distinguishing they're using a blockchain or engaging with it. The founder/designer of EOS, Dan Larimer is the creator of STEEM & Bitshares. As it is right now, STEEM is handedly the blockchain with the most true transactional activity in the entire crypto ecosystem. Steemit is the first decentralized & predominate social playground for content creators and readers. It's the most active blockchain of true consumptive demand. Not just speculative demand but consumptive → https://blocktivity.info/


If there is anyone who can create another truly useful blockchain protocol, it's Dan Larimer. EOS has been running a year long ICO that will come to an end by June 1st where they have already raised more than $1 billion in their ICO fundraising alone and is still ongoing. What's more, EOS will be allocating $1.1 billion of their funding to be split among a handful of VC funds to vet out other DAPP projects / teams and disseminate the funds to selected projects:



INCREASING EXPOSURE TO BTC, EOS, & ICON

As Bitcoin continues to pullback and find it's bottom, we will be reducing our weighting in some of our other alt coins that we are currently holding to increase our exposure to both Bitcoin & EOS along this pullback.

The primary support levels that we are looking at are firmly around the following levels:


Just recently we sold off some our Alt_coin positions to increase our exposure to Bitcoin when it was around $8100. Our plan right now is to increase our BTC dominance in laddered stages from $6000 to $3000. We took our first rotational play @ $8100 and will be increasing that position across Bitcoin, EOS, & ICON. In no way whatsoever will we be selling any NEO during this market correction.

Update coming soon on some other projects that we will be buying for the Gems portfolio purely for swing trade setups on undervalued positions that we're eyeing. Everything needs to SETUP and build new patterns here. Buying things right for discount shopping is one thing, but buying actual trade setups for new breakout & reversal plays is an entirely different strategy that requires more cultivation to occur on the charts. All of the crypto assets across the board are in a confirmed downtrend. Give them time to set-up.

BONUS: Always be cautious when CNBC starts giving instructions on what or how to buy/sell



Some of the greatest pearls shared by Jesse Livermore:

“Money is made by sitting, not trading.”

“The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday, as though they were working for regular wages.”

“Buy right, sit tight.”

“Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.”

“There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. Not many can always have adequate reasons for buying and selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.”

“It takes time to make money.”

“Don’t give me timing, give me time.”

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These results are based on performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Each trade is executed in BotTrigger's S-Corp trading account in the BotTrigger portfolio managed exclusively by Mike Saad, founder & CEO of BotTrigger of Lovical Inc & MomentumStockAlerts.com Inc (umbrella corp). The performance results shown in BotTrigger's portfolio may vary at certain times of the day due to our API feeds that pull the current price of open or closed positions from Yahoo Finance.  Although BotTrigger has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 benchmark by more than 50% per annum since inception, August of 2016, no representation is being made & or promised that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown. BotTrigger so far this 2018, is on pace to achieve it's largest annual YTD return now in it's 3rd year since inception. This performance assumption is not promised but is being communicated that so far we have achieved the highest rate of return on a YTD & YOY (year over year basis). If a majority of our trade setups fail to materialize based on our analysis or trade thesis, it is absolutely possible to close below our running 50% average if not negative. BotTrigger may & often times does  implore hedging strategies and/or stop-loss precautions in the event that the BotTrigger portfolio sustains heavy losses that might cause the cumulative net value of BotTrigger's portfolio value to near below our 50% threshhold of YTD gains. Our goal at minimum is to be up YTD by up to at least 50% or greater. In the event the net weighting of our trade allocations drops the entire portfolio value below this threshold, then triggered sell signals are generated to reduce to a sizeable position of cash.

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