BotTrigger Crypto Trade Alert: $BTC Added @ $16500 our remaining 25% tranche of our Bitcoin allocation fund back into BTC here, which means that we're 100% long of our entire Bitcoin allocation.
Remember, we use 50% of the Bitcoin fund to position-trade the swings to try and exit tops and reenter near the lows after we have enough evidence to suggest the bottom was in, or nearing the bottom for that matter. Well...we have some pretty strong reversal signals that suggest Bitcoin is gearing up to retest the $20k level and there's more than a few technical confluences all showing up in alignment. We like that...that's what we call a perfect storm: Let's highlight those here.
Without question Bitcoin will inevitably retest the $20k highs. We think we'll see that very easily before the close of the weekend if not early into next week. We can expect a soft pullback right here but that pullback would be deemed as a buy-the-dip coupon to be bought. Let's go over the key reasons why we the bottom is likely in on Bitcoin - if you recall from previous posts we highlighted our Master Check Lists Requirements for Bitcoin Bottoming Out. Well we pretty much have every checklist on the list in the all clear buy zone. Take a look below:
So notice we have virtually every check mark on the list of requirements to help guide us to high probability conclusion that Bitcoin has bottomed.
CHECK LIST #1
First off starting with #1 on the list, Bitcoin's had 7 major correction periods in 2017, and based on historical context & precedent we use this table to table to give us a sense of what's possible ...how far humans & bots are willing to go before buying interest comes back in and reverses the downside.
Historically over the last year, we've seen Bitcoin pullback in range anywhere from -30% to -41% before reversing that downside. December was a steeper pullback down to -47%. We contribute this largely due to the new frenzy of coinbase newbs that flooded the market with high hopes, totally unaware of how uncomfortable & volatile these pullbacks can be. Here at BotTrigger, we're thick skinned & navigate handsomely around much of the FUD, tranquillo style. If you're going to be in crypto, you need to have thick skin in this game and be able to handle a drawdown without losing your cool. Keep ice in your veins and chill. Another way of putting it, HODL. For the new crypto-knights just now joining BotTrigger, very much welcome! It's important to distinguish the anthem/culture/church around crypto is largely predicated around a cultural anthem of HODLing which is based off of a 2013 reddit post where a poster went on a rant on why he's HOLDING and misspelled the word. This single post went meme viral and till this day doesn't stop being used. Why do I keep reminding us here about the history of HODL....well yet it's for new Members but it's for everyone to distinguish and remember:
...Know your opponent....Back in Pearl Harbor, the Americans had no clue that Japanese plane fighters would Kamikaze their planes turning them into aerial bombs at the cost of suicide to destroy enemy assets. Be it aerial ramming or Kamikaze...the point here is...understand that in Crypto, the HODL philosophy is an engrained hegemonic form of muscle memory for a large majority of the seasoned retail crypto investors = thus just another reason why Bitcoin tends to fiercely bounce back. You don't sell your Bitcoin at the lows
Moving on....so what can we extrapolate from this....as the table above shows, one can interpret THE RELOAD ZONE to be anywhere within this range and consider getting long on Bitcoin when you see a -30% to -47% pullback. You start to nibble long @ -30% ...a little more long around -35% ...yet another position at -40% and so on. That's one approach one could take simply from this data set .....& then wait for further confirmation that the bottom is in before getting too aggressive.
From peak to trough, Bitcoin did indeed pullback and tag it's prior pivot high in the $10,500 area. As we've been saying since our July post on the Bitcoin correction that took place during that time, we posted a study that showcased that there wasn't a single instance in Bitcoin's entire trading history where a prior pivot high wasn't eventually retested. The point here is this: if you ever see Bitcoin parabolically moon to the stars....always keep a grounded mind and distinguish where it's last pivot high was formed. Pivot highs look like mountain tops on the chart or consolidation areas.
Notice these are not referred to as exact targets or numbers. They are referred to as "areas, zones, or ranges." Bitcoin can often breach an old pivot high, barely tag it or hit it smack on the spot. The take away from the analysis is simply to acknowledge...so far...Bitcoin has a 100% track record of always revisiting prior highs. Records get broken however....more often than not...records like this do get broken. There will be a day that Bitcoin says, Adios! Moons higher and never looks back. Until then, we have to respect the study for what it is and be grounded that the higher probability judgment call is to expect a revisit.
Surging volume nearly always occurs at the bottom of every Bitcoin bottom. It's hard to see when you look at the July correction, but that's only because the volume was "relatively" much smaller on scale to what you're seeing here on this chart below tracking the volume surge for both the November & December pullback.
Now lets isolate the chart and look at the volume behavior that occured from Jan 2017 to August 2018...notice how notably strong the volume inflows were at the bottom of the correction:
Bullish Crossovers are among my favorite and most obvious signals that the trend is gearing for a bullish reversal off the lows. We have both the MACD & Stochastics Momentum oscillator both sporting bullish crossovers across almost every key time frame:
They happen ad nauseam in the same fashion in almost every Bitocoin correction. They are not bullet-proof, but when aligned with the confluence of several other indicators...the probability that a bullish new wave is coming is very high. Let's put it this way, an uptrend can't even take place until you see a bullish crossover. They ALWAYS form when an uptrend takes place. You can't have an uptrend with no bullish crossover that originally cultivated to ignite that uptrend. In short ....no bullish crossover then you will have no uptrend ....as its mathematically impossible.
The BotTrigger algorithiim Buy/Sell Signal flipped to a green arrow on almost every key time frame: 2hr chart, 4hr, 6hr, 8hr, & 12hr time frame. They only time frame that is still in the red is the daily chart. That's ok for now as the Daily time frame will only flip green after we get across a few more technical hurdles on in both price action and time itself. We would need to be above $17500 with Stochastics & MACD above the 50 value range of their panels, along with RSI also above the split range. So it's rather delayed but still gives us caution. For now, we have enough evidence to rule out that we need the daily buy signal. Take a look below on this 12hr time frame. Take notice what has happened at the bottom of every Bitcoin correction once the BT algo flips green.
Let's zoom in closer here on this 2hr time frame. What has since cultivated is a very prominent Double Bottom "W" Formation pattern. All my old members here know how many of these we have come across and bucked higher launching off these breakout plays.
The Double bottom "W" pattern has a statistically high probability of marking the bottom. Why? Because it came down to an ultimate low on the left side of the W ...then bounced....was rejected and retested those lows to make either an equal low to slightly higher low...at this point...it's sentiment is either haggard and ready to throw in the towel or convicted to buy that low point....well it was bought on heavy volume....and then broke out higher above the prior resistance of that "W" flat top formation. What usually transpires here is one last throw to spook everyone out...but more than anything ...it's not some mystical game here...much of the retests that occur are due to dynamics that have to do with concert whales playing morse code with each other and testing the sell walls & flushing out the weak hands. They all want to be in concert with one another. One whale doesn't want to be the only one buying. They test the lows to see if the move down or up is real. The best way this is communicated is by dumping a few snouts to test the buying aggression / interest. If the interest is there ...which btw...usually by the retest of the breakout phase the interest is very much there....then the buy pressure starts to pick up in a big way. Then you get the chasers who chase the bull bars higher.
Expect some more of this back and forth en route towards the $20k level...it can happen as soon as the close of the weekend to early next week ...or late January.. Bitcoin an all together cultivate an entirely different pattern that draws concern along that retest of the highs....we will have to simply watch & trade what is right in front of us. If the winds change, we'll smell it (can you smell wind?) ..point is there will be some tell-tale signs as we get nearer.
But mark my words right here....once we get above $20 to $21k.....
that's all she wrote....
We can very easily see Bitcoin trade straight up to $30K in short order.
In support of this statement we have a classic text book measured breakout target of $30,000 like cash on the barrelhead. Take a look:
And remember, when in doubt....acknowledge that Bitcoin is currently humming round 900 new Bitcoins being released per day. The demand to supply ratio is growing scarcer by the day.